Mls · resolved market
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-08-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bc585f4ea927991713d9f71fb2527103bd65d96f3c24ce73a50d10f50b25953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 11c | 2,058$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.04 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 64c | 944.98$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.13 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…e563backed No | 17c | 873.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.1 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 65c | 839.4$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.48 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Yes | 65c | 652.17$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.66 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 2c | 646.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 15c | 633.75$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7618…24c6backed Yes | 34c | 594.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 35c | 570.1$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.2 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 293.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.87 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 66c | 277$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.18 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 46c | 272.47$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.86 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 16c | 262.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…ef8ebacked No | 67c | 171.8$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.11 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 35c | 138$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 61c | 135.15$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 70c | 113.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked No | 41c | 98.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 14c | 91.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 31c | 86.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 78c | 85.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 65c | 68.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -9.9wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31f3…0eacbacked No | 67c | 58.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 66c | 56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 55c | 52.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef1…4a76backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee71…9204backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 38cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa250…b806backed Yes | 32c | 41.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 37.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 35c | 31.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fde…095bbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 64c | 24.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Yes | 67c | 22.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 65c | 22.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…878dbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 68c | 17.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…140dbacked No | 66c | 15.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-08-22?this page
- Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?No won
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-08-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.