Mls · resolved market
Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb36d3ec6afa0974bf367bab0b3debbcd7228f9e0d7af1f80667e2d05a9531ef9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 10c | 1,337$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.3 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 15c | 970.82$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.78 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 24c | 606.58$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.58 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…36ddbacked No | 76c | 600$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 30c | 500$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.77 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 75c | 335.24$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.81 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 10c | 227.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 71c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 117.15$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 74c | 97.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 20c | 81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…5c3dbacked Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed No | 75c | 72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 50.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 23c | 47.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 74c | 45.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Yes | 23c | 43.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 73c | 14.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-08-22?Yes won
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-08-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.