NBA · resolved market
NBA Summer League: Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bd69a0ad24ccc9d515cd7b3edd6e0a55017399c5043269f4093096800b84103
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Heatof Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Milwaukee Bucks | 1c | 5,211$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25cb…58afbacked Miami Heat | 69c | 1,905$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ce…9f80backed Milwaukee Bucks | 68c | 1,710$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.86 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cc…3a42backed Milwaukee Bucks | 22c | 1,200$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Milwaukee Bucks | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 312 | 22.1%69 W · 243 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Milwaukee Bucks | 25c | 1,000$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.78 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…dcb1backed Milwaukee Bucks | 55c | 622.92$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.36 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Miami Heat | 74c | 571.24$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.52 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Miami Heat | 45c | 552$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.6 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Milwaukee Bucks | 66c | 526.32$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Miami Heat | 48c | 477.17$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.5 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Miami Heat | 68c | 456.06$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.88 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…3241backed Milwaukee Bucks | 49c | 405.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Miami Heat | 37c | 399.9$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Miami Heat | 76c | 383.26$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Milwaukee Bucks | 62c | 368$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.16 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…77eebacked Milwaukee Bucks | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 189 | 30.7%58 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa8…ea63backed Milwaukee Bucks | 67c | 324.99$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8100…1d33backed Miami Heat | 76c | 310.73$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8f…14d1backed Miami Heat | 34c | 306.26$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Miami Heat | 32c | 235.75$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.61 | 259 | 54.4%141 W · 118 L | +34.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Milwaukee Bucks | 15c | 234.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 125 | 8%10 W · 115 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4afc…ded7backed Miami Heat | 42c | 226.79$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Miami Heat | 55c | 223.62$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.62 | 336 | 32.4%109 W · 227 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Miami Heat | 47c | 210.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.61 | 218 | 48.2%105 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf990…88bcbacked Miami Heat | 37c | 199.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.94 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…5dbdbacked Miami Heat | 52c | 199.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…72aebacked Miami Heat | 78c | 187.6$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Miami Heat | 69c | 170.22$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Milwaukee Bucks | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 652 | 18.4%120 W · 532 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Heat | 53c | 126.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Milwaukee Bucks | 25c | 114.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked Miami Heat | 53c | 114.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 174 | 58%101 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Miami Heat | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 111 | 60.4%67 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Milwaukee Bucks | 55c | 88.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Miami Heat | 35c | 77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Miami Heat | 40c | 73.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Miami Heat | 38c | 68.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Miami Heat | 33c | 68.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Milwaukee Bucks | 63c | 67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Milwaukee Bucks | 72c | 57.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -8.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Miami Heat | 44c | 52.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Miami Heat | 60c | 51.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Milwaukee Bucks | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Milwaukee Bucks | 56c | 47.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Milwaukee Bucks | 65c | 42.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 521 | 50.9%265 W · 256 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e2…6099backed Miami Heat | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +131.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Milwaukee Bucks | 63c | 42.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Miami Heat | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed Miami Heat | 33c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Milwaukee Bucks | 63c | 32.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 323 | 51.1%165 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7144…790fbacked Miami Heat | 38c | 32.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Miami Heat | 44c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…7409backed Milwaukee Bucks | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Miami Heat | 56c | 27.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Milwaukee Bucks | 55c | 25.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Miami Heat | 56c | 23.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Milwaukee Bucks | 63c | 20.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Milwaukee Bucks | 65c | 20.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Milwaukee Bucks | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Miami Heat | 69c | 19.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.