Asian League · resolved market
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bf4a8a37f2a37d67c0656a539ebebf06a67c9fe3ec68b79db8e66ced8bf4fb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 8c | 455.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 44c | 386$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.16 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 56c | 386$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.16 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 356.8$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 33c | 316.13$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.58 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 63c | 258$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 40c | 241.59$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.58 | 214 | 49.1%105 W · 109 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Under | 10c | 190.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4261…8d5bbacked Under | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 44c | 65.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a1…8501backed Over | 49c | 62.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Under | 59c | 60.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 41c | 55.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Under | 73c | 47.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…f541backed Over | 42c | 41.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…0d4abacked Under | 75c | 23.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 4.5this page
- Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 2.5Over won
- Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Al Najmah Saudi Club (-1.5)Al Nassr Saudi Club won
- Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-1.5)Al Nassr Saudi Club won
- Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-2.5)Al Nassr Saudi Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.