Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c02536aaa21b42e31c787067a6f97c7a847f9219aa6de93da036c06367c882e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 801.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 19c | 625.42$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.74 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…cac7backed Yes | 18c | 555.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 14c | 342.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 19c | 269.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 18c | 269.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 257.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 188.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 15c | 183.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 18c | 163.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 154.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 79c | 152.02$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 146.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…7f98backed Yes | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 20c | 139.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 130.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 21c | 114.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…53fabacked Yes | 20c | 102.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 17c | 99.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 21c | 97.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 16c | 88.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 20c | 87.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 87.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 24c | 83.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 82.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 18c | 78.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 20c | 56.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…5e5fbacked Yes | 22c | 52.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 78c | 44.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…0a3ebacked Yes | 24c | 44.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…9ad0backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed No | 79c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on July 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.