Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ec9140182643b575ff044a7b51d3de1c394c7b5ecff11d46329316f3ad20514
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 9,446$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.19 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 959.3$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 31c | 771.18$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.13 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 21c | 714.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.25 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 596.42$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 583.26$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 477.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 408.8$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.89 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 376.63$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed No | 34c | 330$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 321.9$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 33c | 314.15$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 283.24$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.11 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…e428backed No | 62c | 244.11$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.91 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 231$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 216.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked No | 54c | 209.02$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 61c | 207.13$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.14 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dc…7351backed Yes | 10c | 206.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 45c | 198.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.71 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 33c | 192.94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.78 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 190.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 179.95$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 46c | 169.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 45c | 144.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…51c4backed Yes | 77c | 137.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 57c | 131.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 51c | 131.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 29c | 130.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 16c | 120.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 120.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 63c | 119.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3224…dc4dbacked Yes | 66c | 114.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 26c | 114.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 59c | 112.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 45c | 108.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 51c | 105.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 42c | 105.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.31 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 62c | 100.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 27c | 100.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 23c | 99.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 47c | 97.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 19c | 96.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 49c | 84.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 23c | 84.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 82.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 46c | 80.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 25c | 80.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 53c | 79.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 63c | 76.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 73c | 75.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 67c | 74.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 61c | 73.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 68c | 73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 71.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…e804backed Yes | 44c | 71.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 71.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4d…b0edbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 59c | 67.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 66.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed Yes | 77c | 65.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 78c | 65.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 46c | 64.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 37c | 63.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 26c | 61.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 35c | 60.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 60.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 26c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 22c | 58.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 70c | 58.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 57.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 55c | 57.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 57.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 56.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…bbc3backed Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 53.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 52.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 33c | 51.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 24c | 50.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 67c | 48.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 46.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 55c | 46.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 55c | 45.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 65c | 44.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed No | 52c | 43.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…f007backed Yes | 25c | 40.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes | 57c | 40.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 45c | 40.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 38.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 38.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on July 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.