Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9c91c85d71ca89a0e2f97caa19451d5a272d4468b0e379af92619b9b551e4c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 2,063$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.9 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.01 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 876.36$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 418.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 412.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 30c | 401.32$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.92 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 77c | 398.64$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 27c | 385.55$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 36c | 361.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.86 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 4c | 334.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 333.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 332.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 320.38$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 319.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 74c | 300$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 291.08$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 266$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 16c | 223.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 27c | 212.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 6c | 209.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 205.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 33c | 205.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 25c | 196.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 37c | 186.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 180.73$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 180$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 179.76$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 170.31$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.31 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 37c | 163.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 148.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…4682backed No | 68c | 146.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 71c | 141.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 134.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 132.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2b…841dbacked Yes | 35c | 124.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…aa66backed Yes | 30c | 124.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…f6d2backed Yes | 35c | 123.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 122.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 117$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 16c | 114.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 31c | 108.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 36c | 106$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 76c | 104.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed No | 65c | 101.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 16c | 100.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 62c | 99.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 99.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 99.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 97.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 31c | 95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 31c | 94.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 94.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 74c | 93.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 37c | 90.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 36c | 89.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 23c | 86.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 85.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…7f98backed Yes | 25c | 84.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 40c | 79.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 21c | 75.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 33c | 74.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 38c | 72.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 36c | 70.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 37c | 69.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 38c | 68.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 61.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Yes | 22c | 61.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 74c | 58.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 74c | 53.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 34c | 53.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 72c | 52.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 28c | 52.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 52.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…6b2dbacked Yes | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 41c | 47.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 45.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 45.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 44.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked No | 69c | 43.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 26c | 43.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 42.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 41.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 41.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 70c | 40.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1d…05e7backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 28c | 39.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on July 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.