Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75c6e2f2228f4904376241a7e9e8fd7996d50b0f0878f21b6017dc44c7ad0677
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked No | 4c | 3,049$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.71 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 17c | 1,400$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.61 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 946.3$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 722.02$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 582.27$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 19c | 535$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.23 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 424$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 404.27$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 25c | 397.46$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.82 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 387.67$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 15c | 343.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.31 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 320.39$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 14c | 319.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.9 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 309.56$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 304.01$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 51c | 263.58$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.58 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 38c | 212.57$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.73 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked No | 72c | 197.12$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.78 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 72c | 195.58$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.46 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 173.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 170.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.63 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 57c | 160.75$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed Yes | 17c | 155.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.62 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…5ab1backed No | 73c | 148.13$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 68c | 147.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 146.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 15c | 140.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.08 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 139.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 9c | 133.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.41 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 66c | 133.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed No | 79c | 130.62$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.54 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bd…a351backed Yes | 14c | 125.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f2…507fbacked Yes | 38c | 116.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 15c | 112.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.75 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 41c | 110.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…78dabacked Yes | 22c | 109.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 107.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 68c | 105.24$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 105$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 59c | 102.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 23c | 102.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 24c | 100.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…c815backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +440.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 64c | 99.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 40c | 90.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 14c | 89.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 26c | 84.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 82.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 36c | 80.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 46c | 79.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 42c | 76.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 35c | 75.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 68c | 71.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc4…4d11backed Yes | 29c | 70.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 68.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 62c | 68.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 25c | 68.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 41c | 66.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 38c | 65.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 18c | 64.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 34c | 61.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 35c | 61.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 33c | 56.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 43c | 52.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 33c | 51.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dc…7351backed Yes | 40c | 50.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…f778backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +144.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…0a91backed Yes | 71c | 49.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 67c | 46.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 46.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ef…bb1fbacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…3269backed Yes | 47c | 42.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked No | 63c | 42.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 44c | 40.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…feb5backed Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 32c | 39.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 76c | 39.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 62c | 37.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 49c | 36.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 56c | 34.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 39c | 33.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 62c | 32.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 73c | 26.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 72c | 26.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 38c | 26.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…21d4backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.