Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: James Madison Dukes (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c5b4d4087e3b6407100993649bf0f3e2c8a0d4aa9688f339a4a314e26759a4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- James Madison Dukesof James Madison Dukes, Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $300,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $300,734 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2643…39aebacked James Madison Dukes | 59c | 279,316$164,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114,778.05 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 41c | 201,506$82,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82,594.04 | 177 | 42.9%76 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 41c | 38,032$15,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,592.97 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +16.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 42c | 20,885$8,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,751.23 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 40c | 16,104$6,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,451.47 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 42c | 9,751$4,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,065 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…b408backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 41c | 6,666$2,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,733.06 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 40c | 4,725$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.39 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.02 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 41c | 1,029$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.03 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 41c | 731.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 41c | 624.35$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.98 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 43c | 484.18$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 41c | 478.3$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.09 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked James Madison Dukes | 35c | 396.11$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.91 | 279 | 55.2%154 W · 125 L | +22.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 42c | 377.76$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 43c | 199.64$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 41c | 198.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed James Madison Dukes | 41c | 184.8$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.57 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed James Madison Dukes | 58c | 178.47$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 155 | 59.4%92 W · 63 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…f8b4backed James Madison Dukes | 55c | 157.93$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 40c | 100.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 43c | 73.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 41c | 68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked James Madison Dukes | 55c | 61.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 49c | 49.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 41c | 48.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 184 | 39.1%72 W · 112 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 43c | 40.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 172 | 58.7%101 W · 71 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 41c | 39.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 40c | 32.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d81…360ebacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 43c | 31.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6145…3e2bbacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 49c | 30.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked James Madison Dukes | 60c | 20.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: James Madison Dukes (-5.5)this page
- Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. James Madison DukesJames Madison Dukes won
- Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. James Madison Dukes: O/U 133.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.