Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c5c1902e7a72a1a3e34906838d7611100eccbd1683af9287d4a76a84679ffb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 40c | 298.15$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.69 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 41c | 241.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 231.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 47c | 192.16$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 47c | 175.79$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 151.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 32c | 150.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.78 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 67c | 148.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 143$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 125.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 71c | 118.23$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 70c | 106.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 72c | 93.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 86.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 63c | 79.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 35c | 73.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…ae43backed No | 65c | 72.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…0894backed No | 71c | 69.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 59.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 58.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 47c | 58.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 63c | 56.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 38c | 56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 56c | 53.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 49.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 63c | 48.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 29c | 47.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 47.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…3c9fbacked Yes | 35c | 45.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 45.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 36c | 42.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes | 35c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 52c | 35.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 34.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 65c | 32.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 30.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 27.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f3…c784backed Yes | 45c | 27.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 45c | 26.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 67c | 24.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 22.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 19.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.