Serie A · resolved market

Torino FC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c5fe7bdc9de1cc276863e18e4343d5d2c50ee2cc8fa5fdb56fcaa4f52146490

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 13, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $51,487
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $58,021

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,487 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	63c	23,755$15,049 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,706.37	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Over	20c	13,299$2,696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,695.77	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-4.8wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	49c	3,730$1,828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,827.7	527	48%253 W · 274 L	-35.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under	65c	3,143$2,038 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,104.83	155	50.3%78 W · 77 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over	30c	2,273$689 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$688.83	969	42.3%410 W · 559 L	-13.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8ef…d497backed Over	49c	2,012$986 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$986	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-49%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under	51c	1,997$1,026 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$970.31	592	40.7%241 W · 351 L	-15.8wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Over	49c	1,939$953 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$953.26	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Over	48c	1,500$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720	366	30.9%113 W · 253 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	49c	1,438$702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$702.39	333	57.4%191 W · 142 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	51c	1,017$519 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$498.22	387	44.7%173 W · 214 L	-10.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over	49c	816$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.84	101	52.5%53 W · 48 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Over	49c	790$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Under	44c	454.55$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.55	23	91.3%21 W · 2 L	+6.4wins	+0.28per pick	64cpaid	+48.8%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over	48c	362$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.55	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over	49c	338.78$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166	114	29.8%34 W · 80 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b68…795bbacked Over	60c	235.43$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.21	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-22%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4eb…5857backed Over	45c	222.8$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.26	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	67c	216.96$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.68	1,981	39.8%788 W · 1,193 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Under	53c	209.43$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.43	339	51.6%175 W · 164 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43de…d169backed Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over	49c	179$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.71	285	56.1%160 W · 125 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over	49c	163$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.87	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over	49c	163$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.87	89	48.3%43 W · 46 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over	49c	163$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.87	115	50.4%58 W · 57 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Over	49c	163$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.87	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over	49c	163$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.87	141	55.3%78 W · 63 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over	49c	163$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.87	154	59.1%91 W · 63 L	+11.2wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over	49c	163$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.87	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over	49c	163$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.87	284	58.1%165 W · 119 L	+12.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over	49c	156$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.44	131	52.7%69 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over	49c	120$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	255	56.5%144 W · 111 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over	49c	120$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	184	59.2%109 W · 75 L	+12.8wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Over	45c	112.71$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.72	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49c…6dcabacked Under	52c	108$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.84	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked Under	53c	108$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.76	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Over	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	60	36.7%22 W · 38 L	-6.5wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Over	49c	89$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.61	74	45.9%34 W · 40 L	-5.1wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over	48c	83.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	152	53.9%82 W · 70 L	-14.7wins	-0.10per pick	64cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Under	53c	83$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.01	79	48.1%38 W · 41 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over	49c	81$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.69	94	45.7%43 W · 51 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Over	49c	81$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.69	115	51.3%59 W · 56 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over	49c	81$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.69	127	54.3%69 W · 58 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over	49c	81$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.69	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Over	49c	81$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.69	124	54.8%68 W · 56 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Over	49c	81$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.69	85	50.6%43 W · 42 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Over	49c	81$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.69	136	50.7%69 W · 67 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over	49c	80$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	168	51.2%86 W · 82 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over	49c	67$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.83	158	47.5%75 W · 83 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over	49c	67$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.83	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bbb…1594backed Under	52c	60$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.8	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+3.4wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Over	48c	60$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	387	39.8%154 W · 233 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfa49…949ebacked Under	56c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5351…a045backed Under	52c	48$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.04	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+15%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over	49c	44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.56	81	48.1%39 W · 42 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over	49c	44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.56	109	52.3%57 W · 52 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over	49c	44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.56	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over	49c	44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.56	119	53.8%64 W · 55 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Over	49c	44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.56	94	47.9%45 W · 49 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	123	47.2%58 W · 65 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over	49c	37.23$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	114	48.2%55 W · 59 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa5f…3de3backed Under	54c	36$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.56	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9acf…bd74backed Over	48c	35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.23per pick	57cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fe1…e560backed Over	48c	32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd1…0100backed Over	48c	32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	65cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78a4…05afbacked Over	48c	31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-3.1wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8380…1866backed Over	48c	31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8358…956bbacked Over	46c	26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36c9…3f9fbacked Over	48c	26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e32…f244backed Under	52c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.52	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	62cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03c4…b832backed Under	61c	22.95$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.95	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4918…3db7backed Over	46c	22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.37per pick	57cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Torino FC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5this page
Spread: Torino FC (-1.5)US Cremonese won
Torino FC vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Torino FC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5Under won
Torino FC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Torino FC vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event