Asian League · resolved market
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c74ef3c0398825097e3462c2d4bc9421ba7cf2cbb76aed1bfd1923281392f49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 2,622$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.92 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 2,214$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.87 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 24c | 1,069$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.3 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…14f5backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +267.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Yes | 27c | 811.25$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.25 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked No | 13c | 550$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32bf…ec60backed Yes | 20c | 538.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 65c | 449.02$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.52 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 437.24$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 27c | 372.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.22 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 23c | 285.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…4f6dbacked Yes | 24c | 279.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +315.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf355…6759backed Yes | 78c | 270.17$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 21c | 264.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.82 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Yes | 22c | 227.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Yes | 25c | 224$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 18c | 223.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.26 | 93 | 25.8%24 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f61…4248backed Yes | 40c | 207.62$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 8c | 204.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 15c | 198.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Yes | 23c | 160$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82a2…0593backed No | 77c | 128.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 25c | 121.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked No | 78c | 111.21$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Yes | 23c | 105.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 18c | 105.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…3409backed Yes | 20c | 102.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 101$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…0167backed Yes | 40c | 89.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 69c | 84.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Yes | 47c | 84.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 192 | 68.2%131 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…7b41backed Yes | 27c | 81.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe736…9d9fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…baa4backed Yes | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…be63backed Yes | 80c | 72.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fb…f24cbacked Yes | 21c | 71.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +378.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 48c | 62.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 17c | 62.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0338backed Yes | 20c | 55.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3b…07f7backed No | 74c | 53.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed No | 79c | 48.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 61c | 46.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…5db9backed No | 55c | 45.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…13eebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a9…565cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 78c | 39.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 80c | 37.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-01?this page
- Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw?No won
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.