Asian League · resolved market
Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5f6613392e958ed876db575856f38473f464208aabe32b21eff8f803c205770
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef27…381bbacked Yes | 28c | 7,235$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 4,301$3,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.34 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 1,795$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.85 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 26c | 1,193$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.08 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked No | 74c | 975.48$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.62 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…2040backed Yes | 25c | 846.4$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 66c | 799.69$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.71 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 73c | 772.78$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.55 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…1229backed No | 65c | 736.96$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed No | 74c | 700$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…14f5backed No | 48c | 499.98$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +267.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 50c | 484.52$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.02 | 93 | 25.8%24 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 26c | 417.31$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…ab5abacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Yes | 28c | 389.91$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32bf…ec60backed Yes | 44c | 228.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed No | 71c | 213.96$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 49c | 213.35$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…589dbacked Yes | 28c | 210$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed No | 74c | 201.16$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Yes | 13c | 196.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…1497backed Yes | 33c | 193.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 14c | 185.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 73c | 151.17$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 15c | 142.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 36c | 137.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 74c | 135.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 42c | 128.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 38c | 126.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…07c7backed Yes | 39c | 126.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Yes | 52c | 113.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 26c | 103.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 74c | 103.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…edaabacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 341 | 50.7%173 W · 168 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 48c | 83.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1591…3cc4backed Yes | 43c | 68.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 66c | 58.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 74c | 52.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef5…efc4backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…b9debacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 64c | 36.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 48c | 35.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1,035 | 41.6%431 W · 604 L | -33.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Yes | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked No | 76c | 32.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…13eebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 76c | 30.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Yes | 56c | 28.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…5c9fbacked Yes | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed No | 76c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw?this page
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-01?Yes won
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.