Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Brandon Holt vs Giulio Zeppieri
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c765942062eadd96cf2ac4434ec4e742c459e2a3958c9bc82128e8127820e04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zeppieriof Holt, Zeppieri
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Holt | 60c | 1,385$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.7 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Zeppieri | 49c | 1,237$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.75 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Zeppieri | 32c | 999.58$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.75 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Zeppieri | 28c | 925$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.78 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Holt | 25c | 880.32$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.18 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Holt | 41c | 707.15$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.17 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Holt | 58c | 594.09$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.74 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Zeppieri | 61c | 460.33$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Zeppieri | 29c | 434.71$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.26 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…86bbbacked Holt | 63c | 254.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.12 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Holt | 24c | 230.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…1943backed Zeppieri | 30c | 207.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Zeppieri | 41c | 200$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Holt | 46c | 163.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…de20backed Zeppieri | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Holt | 42c | 134.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Zeppieri | 71c | 120.34$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Zeppieri | 67c | 97.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Holt | 42c | 76.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…07aabacked Zeppieri | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 167 | 62.9%105 W · 62 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Zeppieri | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…161cbacked Zeppieri | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Holt | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Zeppieri | 69c | 46.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Zeppieri | 56c | 42.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Holt | 37c | 31.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Holt | 58c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Holt | 72c | 30.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Zeppieri | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Zeppieri | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xafcb…19b1backed Holt | 70c | 20.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…7426backed Zeppieri | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Zeppieri | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Brandon Holt vs Giulio Zeppierithis page
- Set 1 Winner: Holt vs ZeppieriHolt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.