Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C or higher on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c7b452629e6b328b18bc876105e0a252158daa00ee010a064cc2a9fa8c9acdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 460.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 13c | 335.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.76 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 5c | 293$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.35 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 77c | 292.18$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 292.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 17c | 227.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 215.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.44 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 12c | 180.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.78 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 12c | 175.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 72c | 172.74$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 165.84$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.28 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 151.46$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 139.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 60c | 116.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 12c | 115.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 112.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 61c | 108.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 69c | 107.83$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 13c | 101$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.87 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 14c | 92.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.37 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 72.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 66.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 47c | 56.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 68c | 55.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…f4c7backed Yes | 38c | 52.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 67c | 52.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 61c | 52.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 53c | 51.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 43c | 45.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 66c | 42.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 31.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 28.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 27.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…6b23backed Yes | 68c | 26.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…7f7abacked Yes | 41c | 25.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 25.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Yes | 58c | 24.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 74c | 23.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 22.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x872a…82cbbacked Yes | 64c | 21.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 64c | 20.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked Yes | 57c | 18.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C or higher on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.