Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e14311d786a8e32a644c134757d279b1b189b992eb66be45440970f9e603080
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 458.43$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 423.09$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.26 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 43c | 202.85$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 190.48$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 190$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 27c | 179.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 168.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 29c | 155.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 150.48$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 137.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.8 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 18c | 135.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 132.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 70c | 131.65$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 131.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 22c | 127.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…242fbacked No | 56c | 126.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 75c | 125.22$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 30c | 104.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 101.82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 60c | 101$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 39c | 99.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 93.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 76.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 20c | 73.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…2a43backed Yes | 72c | 70.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 27c | 68.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 43c | 67.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 45c | 66.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 39c | 62.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 59.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 59.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 56.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 63c | 51.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 36c | 51.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 75c | 50.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 45c | 48.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 39c | 41.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 39.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 77c | 39.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 74c | 38.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 36.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 55c | 35.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 52c | 33.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 63c | 31.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 43c | 30.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 30.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 28.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 75c | 27.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 40c | 26.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 23.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 47c | 23.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 23.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…4ecfbacked No | 62c | 22.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 22.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 68c | 22.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 63c | 19.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…6114backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C or higher on August 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.