MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c9781ca544b510e957fe8b266d3b952678fbdbeee859a8d02d9adf96dd7f485
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 17,805$12,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,815.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 28c | 15,900$4,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,457.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 1,288$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.57 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Minnesota Twins | 70c | 1,031$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.85 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 999.99$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.44 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Washington Nationals | 26c | 553$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.72 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals | 28c | 524.9$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.87 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 362.6$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.95 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Minnesota Twins | 31c | 321.04$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 300.4$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 221$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 212.19$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 162.57$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.42 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 133.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.61 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 110$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 103$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Washington Nationals | 26c | 100.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 34c | 89.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 85.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 79.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Washington Nationals | 28c | 64.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Washington Nationals | 28c | 64.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 63.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 52c | 58.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Washington Nationals | 28c | 52.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 52.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Minnesota Twins | 45c | 50.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 37.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 37.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Washington Nationals | 31c | 33.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Minnesota Twins | 78c | 20.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 13.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.