MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51252391e96fc95f829362ed60d7af1f150891d3bf3af86ea99cebc25fd7a1b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Minnesota Twins, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 6,589$4,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,233.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 6,567$4,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115.02 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 6,187$2,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,068.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals | 75c | 2,273$1,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.84 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 33c | 2,228$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Minnesota Twins | 19c | 2,192$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.88 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Minnesota Twins | 31c | 1,225$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.28 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Minnesota Twins | 24c | 1,187$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.82 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Minnesota Twins | 29c | 690.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 453.09$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.64 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Minnesota Twins | 32c | 432$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Minnesota Twins | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 270$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Minnesota Twins | 32c | 245.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 177.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 166.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Minnesota Twins | 24c | 121.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 104.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Minnesota Twins | 29c | 101$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 97.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 96.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Minnesota Twins | 27c | 85.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6477…4243backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 80.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 28c | 70.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Minnesota Twins | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 64.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 64.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 61.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 57.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 53.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…81a4backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 51.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 50.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 45.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…cae4backed Minnesota Twins | 29c | 42.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Minnesota Twins | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 41.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…e861backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 13.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.