TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$207,530
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$213,562

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,530 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x777d…5143backed Under55c115,355$63,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,388.448856.8%50 W · 38 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Over45c100,000$45,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,00041149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Over46c15,000$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,10051756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over45c14,084$6,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,811.8511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Under54c11,218$6,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,057.659549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under56c8,956$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under56c8,915$4,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,992.361,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under55c6,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30021748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.991,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Over46c4,304$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,324.3516947.9%81 W · 88 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under49c3,928$1,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,930.122,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Over47c3,238$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,716.339047.4%185 W · 205 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Over47c3,222$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.027843.6%34 W · 44 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over46c3,167$1,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,714.712,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Over44c2,268$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.9149158.9%289 W · 202 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bc0…af1abacked Over48c2,019$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.659147.3%43 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over53c2,009$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.48,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3ad…45f9backed Over44c1,650$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92411741.9%49 W · 68 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0580…f78bbacked Under1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15400%0 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Under60c1,491$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89960%0 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Under52c1,479$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.0815148.3%73 W · 78 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over45c1,344$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.174,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over48c1,328$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.6889153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under40c1,220$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.558,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Under3c1,125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301365.9%8 W · 128 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-64.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe757…c161backed Under54c1,121$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.66437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under55c901.66$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50051555.7%287 W · 228 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Under56c892.86$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015847.5%75 W · 83 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over44c795$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.21,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Under56c753.98$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.2323851.3%122 W · 116 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8001…c76fbacked Under54c749.61$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.795657.1%32 W · 24 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Over45c678.17$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.9965549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under54c649$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.4627249.3%134 W · 138 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27585952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Under54c450$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2441,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over47c424.48$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.4894034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Over46c400$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21622848.2%110 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d22…403ebacked Under54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.372,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under54c365.16$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.9112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over46c339.16$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.591,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over45c337.01$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.896,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bc…1b77backed Over46c327.22$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.221450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over60c299$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.023,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Under53c288.98$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1628154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8c2…080bbacked Under56c277.69$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.274461.4%27 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c6e…271bbacked Under56c269.8$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.096051.7%31 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcdd…6d55backed Under56c223.09$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.939058.9%53 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over47c222.56$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.0773748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb408…e303backed Under43c186.05$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over54c169.41$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.385,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under43c145.41$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.96,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over47c140$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.261948.6%301 W · 318 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Under48c133$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8421842.7%93 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Under55c132.4$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8246557.2%266 W · 199 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Over46c130.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4348150.7%244 W · 237 L-19.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Over46c119.02$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2724350.6%123 W · 120 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed7b…7b92backed Over46c108.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.482040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbbb…5693backed Under55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under21c91.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.855,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Over46c88$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5299744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74dd…f3c5backed Under54c80$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.211254.5%61 W · 51 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over46c78$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.121,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Over46c76.09$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0948651%248 W · 238 L-18.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under55c73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1521353.5%114 W · 99 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…e91cbacked Under55c72.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406956.5%39 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under53c69$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5792054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Over46c66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6472247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…e155backed Under54c64.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0212050%60 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Over47c64.66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2784140.2%338 W · 503 L-3.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Over45c64.39$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4123248.7%113 W · 119 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa20d…eadebacked Over47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8320446.6%95 W · 109 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4cb…a917backed Over47c63.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4920751.2%106 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec6c…c407backed Over47c57.57$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.512853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc78…f1f5backed Over46c54.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3526351.3%135 W · 128 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe246…dedcbacked Under56c53.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3026753.9%144 W · 123 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a2b…d4e9backed Over46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Over45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.51,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4619…2108backed Under53c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Under26c46.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0837143.9%163 W · 208 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95e4…5134backed Under24c46.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.096248.4%30 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3e…11c0backed Under54c46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.849641.7%40 W · 56 L-8.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x81d7…32d8backed Under55c45.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258052.5%42 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97a8…078dbacked Under56c44.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.788764.4%56 W · 31 L+7.8wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3ff…ec82backed Under46c43.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021554.9%118 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe779…059cbacked Over46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bcf…c678backed Over55c43.23$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5424654.9%135 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e4…4a19backed Over67c40.23$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.16684.8%56 W · 10 L+15.1wins+0.23per pick62cpaid+34.5%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0x3903…1db6backed Under55c39.82$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.91741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8858…ed3ebacked Under41c38.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9213641.9%57 W · 79 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d84…4b14backed Under55c37.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.821850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under51c36.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4c…5c55backed Under55c36.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.021127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-42.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x829a…a748backed Under55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018751.9%97 W · 90 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6844…0ccfbacked Under55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Under56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031446.8%147 W · 167 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Over43c32.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.614245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc96b…438abacked Over46c32.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6127452.6%144 W · 130 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over46c30.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.591,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.352,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.