Mls · resolved market
Will New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c9b6a51257c84b6079891f2adf8cbd01918578bf3bba4e2109ce306d164af55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed No | 64c | 2,855$1,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.36 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 39c | 2,589$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.98 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 48c | 2,109$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.2 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 43c | 1,295$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.97 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 28c | 1,175$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.01 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 26c | 900$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb73…53b0backed No | 75c | 800$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 64c | 787.74$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.44 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 63c | 737.31$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.76 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 65c | 705.06$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.96 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 678.5$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.09 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002f…92f3backed No | 75c | 666.31$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 71cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 618.38$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.98 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 28c | 433.3$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.97 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 57c | 366.73$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.72 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 33c | 288.73$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.45 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 74c | 284.02$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.18 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 42c | 251$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.09 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90fe…b7b8backed Yes | 25c | 170.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.12 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 31c | 161$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.09 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 153.11$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0e…2a0ebacked No | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 75c | 147.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.47 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 18c | 128.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 29c | 98.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 64c | 84.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 75.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 45c | 73.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 74c | 65.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 31c | 55.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 54.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…7d0fbacked Yes | 54c | 43.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Yes | 45c | 22.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC end in a draw?this page
- Will New England Revolution win on 2026-07-22?No won
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-07-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.