Mls · resolved market
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-07-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36b02a1f09e20dfbfbe16085c56566c2a705a5893b476061d05dc594f9c036ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 21c | 11,500$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.93 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 9,578$7,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,013.09 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed No | 80c | 3,893$3,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.6 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…2410backed Yes | 19c | 2,105$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 20c | 1,261$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.15 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 1,188$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.31 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 18c | 1,033$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.22 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 24c | 757$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.51 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 73c | 684$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.68 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0e…2a0ebacked No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked No | 77c | 494$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.62 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed No | 77c | 494$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.62 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…7d70backed No | 77c | 480$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 446.97$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.49 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 407.03$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.08 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Yes | 27c | 350$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 74c | 332.56$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 22c | 320.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 286.46$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Yes | 28c | 256$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 28c | 233.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 14c | 199.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 80c | 198.41$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 27c | 140$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 77c | 131.54$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 79c | 128.62$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 75c | 108.79$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 100.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed No | 79c | 94.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed No | 78c | 88.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 21c | 66.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…10d3backed Yes | 21c | 61.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked No | 74c | 59.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 74c | 51.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 77c | 50.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…02ccbacked No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…60b9backed Yes | 25c | 44.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked No | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…0289backed No | 78c | 38.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…54aebacked No | 75c | 31.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…76f0backed No | 74c | 30.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…a334backed No | 74c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2476…7eeebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…a670backed No | 76c | 16.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x077f…777fbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed No | 80c | 13.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 47 | 80.9%38 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-07-22?this page
- Will New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will New England Revolution win on 2026-07-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.