Tennis · resolved market
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Varvara Panshina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ca492f03550fd5886e0f189a63596869a93a19deb18901a2c4d1626e031ff01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Varvara Panshinaof Kyoka Okamura, Varvara Panshina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Kyoka Okamura | 30c | 4,869$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.09 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Varvara Panshina | 61c | 3,754$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.32 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Kyoka Okamura | 53c | 2,252$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Kyoka Okamura | 62c | 1,986$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.05 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Varvara Panshina | 45c | 1,519$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.42 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…44a6backed Kyoka Okamura | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 212 | 44.3%94 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc92…649dbacked Varvara Panshina | 39c | 1,032$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.93 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70bc…4e16backed Varvara Panshina | 39c | 975.56$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.76 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e7…61f1backed Varvara Panshina | 39c | 877.26$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.13 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kyoka Okamura | 45c | 859.03$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.97 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…0dedbacked Varvara Panshina | 33c | 635.41$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.17 | 585 | 39.5%231 W · 354 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1aa…9359backed Kyoka Okamura | 52c | 583.95$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.35 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…215ebacked Varvara Panshina | 43c | 540.77$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.77 | 244 | 50.8%124 W · 120 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Varvara Panshina | 56c | 393.09$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.96 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Kyoka Okamura | 46c | 389.37$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.6 | 1,842 | 41%755 W · 1,087 L | -31.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Kyoka Okamura | 44c | 271.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.97 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Varvara Panshina | 52c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 643 | 65.9%424 W · 219 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kyoka Okamura | 49c | 196.08$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Varvara Panshina | 51c | 142.54$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Varvara Panshina | 54c | 128.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Varvara Panshina | 44c | 114.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…7fdfbacked Kyoka Okamura | 61c | 113.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…eb76backed Kyoka Okamura | 47c | 111.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 183 | 30.1%55 W · 128 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Varvara Panshina | 62c | 106.75$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 197 | 40.6%80 W · 117 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ae…3e6cbacked Varvara Panshina | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Varvara Panshina | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…f609backed Varvara Panshina | 56c | 88.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Varvara Panshina | 32c | 86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Varvara Panshina | 45c | 85.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 2,887 | 39.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L | -84.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…a1a6backed Varvara Panshina | 32c | 79.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 272 | 48.2%131 W · 141 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Varvara Panshina | 48c | 62.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Kyoka Okamura | 48c | 58.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Varvara Panshina | 57c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 3,798 | 54.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L | +111.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Varvara Panshina | 41c | 57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e3…8c11backed Kyoka Okamura | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Varvara Panshina | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d04…022bbacked Kyoka Okamura | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 145 | 31.7%46 W · 99 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…20e4backed Varvara Panshina | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Varvara Panshina | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 826 | 57.1%472 W · 354 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff87…f5f7backed Varvara Panshina | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0d…3646backed Kyoka Okamura | 64c | 42.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Kyoka Okamura | 25c | 41.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kyoka Okamura | 46c | 39.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Kyoka Okamura | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Varvara Panshina | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 197 | 45.7%90 W · 107 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…8a6ebacked Kyoka Okamura | 72c | 27.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 417 | 68.1%284 W · 133 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Varvara Panshina | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e62…fd00backed Varvara Panshina | 57c | 22.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 203 | 47.3%96 W · 107 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…bdbebacked Varvara Panshina | 54c | 22.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.