Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cb8845b3c13255bc4defee7a4c0814e79e95053b3fbc36ce4577fb71748b738
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 370.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 324$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 28c | 186.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 72c | 170.65$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 160.62$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 27c | 144$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 30c | 127.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 27c | 103.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 103.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e06…0e80backed Yes | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 27c | 95.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 26c | 93.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 82.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 71.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1b…4b83backed Yes | 28c | 71.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 64.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 63.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 62.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 20c | 60.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed Yes | 33c | 54.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 20c | 52.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 50.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 50.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 41.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 70c | 41.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 32c | 38.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 38.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 74c | 35.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 35.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 71c | 34.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 33.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 31.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 30.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 75c | 29.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 71c | 28.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 76c | 25.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 24.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 62c | 22.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 20.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 74c | 20.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 68c | 17.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 65c | 17.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 75c | 16.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 78c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…8ef9backed No | 77c | 15.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 76c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 73c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 75c | 13.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C or below on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.