Dota2 · resolved market
1win to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cbad83bbb2e19ac6aaf2334c80e61de492615a44fb1d17de2f32e780cfcbba5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3452…1ba0backed Yes | 45c | 3,465$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.07 | 183 | 51.9%95 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed No | 55c | 1,860$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed No | 54c | 1,594$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.01 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce6…79eebacked No | 54c | 1,009$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 46c | 938.61$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.76 | 196 | 43.9%86 W · 110 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 44c | 549$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.06 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…a02abacked Yes | 56c | 350$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 136 | 58.1%79 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Yes | 48c | 276.21$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.94 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 52c | 242.45$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked No | 55c | 230$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Yes | 45c | 230$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871f…3330backed Yes | 46c | 218.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 50c | 184.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.32 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed No | 50c | 170.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed No | 54c | 166.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 50c | 139.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 48c | 119.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…57c1backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4953…bd5ebacked Yes | 35c | 106$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked No | 51c | 105.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 47c | 99.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…c849backed Yes | 52c | 96.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 42.9%67 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 49c | 91.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 51c | 86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Yes | 57c | 71.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Yes | 44c | 67.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e6…8532backed Yes | 56c | 64.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 154 | 65.6%101 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed No | 49c | 49.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Yes | 50c | 40.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…6715backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 145 | 43.4%63 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 39.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…1813backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 57c | 21.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 57c | 20.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1win to win 2-0?this page
- 1win vs Vici Gaming: Draw (1-1)?Yes won
- Vici Gaming to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.