Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cbe26c43817d74689889e24f5faf01ff12a0e5d358997510622b2d1730f5640
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, Penn State Nittany Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $412,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $575,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $412,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 5c | 56,947$2,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,626.48 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 5c | 22,027$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.15 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 4c | 20,208$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.78 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8f4cbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 5c | 20,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc526…bf92backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 6c | 6,401$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 3c | 5,520$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.17 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 5c | 5,119$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.46 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 5c | 5,006$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.19 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 7c | 4,560$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.89 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe35…d34abacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 3c | 4,533$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 1c | 3,309$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 318 | 37.7%120 W · 198 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 4c | 3,187$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.69 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 4c | 3,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 6c | 2,347$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 10c | 2,285$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.8 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…a993backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 4c | 1,851$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 1c | 1,845$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 3c | 1,500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 6c | 1,201$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 4c | 1,026$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 4c | 1,017$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f49…1befbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 5c | 1,010$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 5c | 999.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…4b46backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 7c | 962.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 4c | 931.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 94 | 12.8%12 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…2b11backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 4c | 856.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 4c | 770.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 8c | 746.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 6c | 668.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 149 | 25.5%38 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 10c | 511.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…8dd8backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 6c | 480$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 5c | 461.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 210 | 59.5%125 W · 85 L | +17.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…97b5backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 4c | 390.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…79bebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0155…a6ffbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 7c | 296.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…891bbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 4c | 252.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 10c | 246.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…01f1backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 4c | 238.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 6c | 186.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 17c | 103.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lionsthis page
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: O/U 166.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-20.5)Penn State Nittany Lions won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-21.5)Penn State Nittany Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.