Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d22e071822a8233fe666d76d010f54384e1329daf9c46bb94659ea02884d067
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 4c | 261.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 189.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked No | 28c | 167.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.06 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked No | 36c | 139.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.06 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 107.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 24c | 104.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 100.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 28c | 100.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…31c5backed No | 25c | 92.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 24c | 89.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked No | 35c | 86.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 69c | 86.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 23c | 83.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 30c | 70.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 70c | 61.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 29c | 59.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed No | 28c | 56.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 27c | 54.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed No | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed No | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a9…5165backed No | 34c | 44.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 67c | 42.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes | 79c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 80c | 25.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed No | 67c | 25.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed Yes | 71c | 20.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016d…e9b4backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.