Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6a341f2821e19a3cb182934ded7bb53a945356fa2ec714138797912fb8680b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 5c | 456.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 8c | 358.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 331.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 68c | 294.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.9 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 35c | 259.01$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.51 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 225.05$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 76c | 204.06$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 10c | 175.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 75c | 172.68$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 66c | 151.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 11c | 134.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.31 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 29c | 112.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 11c | 104.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.01 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 103.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 61c | 97.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 15c | 96.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked Yes | 57c | 85.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 84.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed No | 24c | 81.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 64.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 32c | 62.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 26c | 62.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 49c | 60.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 67c | 58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 69c | 56.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 22c | 56.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 30c | 49.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 24c | 43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 30c | 42.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 29c | 37.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 72c | 34.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 76c | 31.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 50c | 30.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 28.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 77c | 23.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 71c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 50c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 64c | 18.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 68c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed Yes | 72c | 17.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 74c | 17.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 75c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.