Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d3735f284aec0e582912fe0f993931dbfeea5000dc8678331e35933ab560926
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 15c | 462.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 461.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 319.42$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 276.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaad…25c9backed Yes | 8c | 262.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 6c | 253$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 5c | 214.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 33c | 205.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 197.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 19c | 173.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 17c | 154.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 13c | 143.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 136.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 134.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 15c | 126.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 17c | 116.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 111.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 15c | 109.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 105.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 18c | 100.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 31c | 96.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 16c | 95.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 27c | 95.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 94.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 18c | 94.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 80.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 25c | 65.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 60.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 78c | 56.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 31c | 53.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked Yes | 21c | 52.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 22c | 52.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 75c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 40.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 79c | 35.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 34c | 33.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 73c | 26.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 75c | 19.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 75c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…9df0backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 78c | 13.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or below on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.