Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cf6078e445820bd0f0a5cdfb15bff7ffdee075f938b54c5bff7afb426e499e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeaad…25c9backed Yes | 1c | 2,522$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,020$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 822.7$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 547.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 342.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 323.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 33c | 297.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 63c | 283.43$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 70c | 273$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.52 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 71c | 224.32$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 32c | 203.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 201.51$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 28c | 191.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 187.98$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 177.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 59c | 170.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 68c | 161.4$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 61c | 160.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 54c | 146.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 143.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 142.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 134.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 12c | 102.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed No | 70c | 99.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 29c | 99.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 30c | 94.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 93.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 31c | 87.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 80.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…0a43backed Yes | 39c | 77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 68.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 65c | 68.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…566cbacked Yes | 43c | 68.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 66.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 43c | 62.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 59.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 59.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 57.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 78c | 54.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 54.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 74c | 51.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 50.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 65c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 48.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 55c | 47.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7a…24f9backed Yes | 63c | 46.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 25c | 44.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 31c | 42.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 78c | 41.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 40.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 70c | 39.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 55c | 34.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 42c | 34.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e6…babebacked Yes | 46c | 34.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked No | 59c | 33.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 63c | 31.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 69c | 28.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 71c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 70c | 25.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 61c | 23.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 69c | 21.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 20.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 66c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 58c | 17.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…c4cebacked No | 72c | 14.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or below on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.