Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4c740435510b84755b914dfadea68480427ee6983eda2fe930a346f283a2e16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 28c | 813.85$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.49 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 6c | 531$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 5c | 441.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 431.19$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 426.68$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…566cbacked Yes | 27c | 366.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 303.19$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 221$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 28c | 219.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.92 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 203$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 193.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 178$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 173.05$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 19c | 172.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.74 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 172.18$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.67 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 164.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 75c | 160$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 158$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 145.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…6bfcbacked No | 73c | 135.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 134.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 126.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 23c | 123.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.42 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 72c | 113.65$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 110.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 106.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.66 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 91.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 73c | 85.45$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 82.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 23c | 81.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 30c | 77.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 30c | 77.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 26c | 77.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 32c | 66.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 74c | 61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 59.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 52.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 49.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 32c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 77c | 42.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 42.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 28c | 40.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 39.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…053dbacked No | 70c | 39.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…7627backed No | 71c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 52c | 38.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…79f7backed No | 69c | 38.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 67c | 35.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 76c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 72c | 33.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 74c | 32.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…53d0backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 32c | 32.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 27.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked No | 78c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 73c | 21.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 19.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 70c | 18.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 78c | 15.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or below on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.