Tennis · resolved market
Hagen: Elmer Moeller vs Jamie Mackenzie
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d3d77656099b2a564e8f6fe749a1132cc3c5642506e586364f7b685cecff476
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Elmer Moellerof Elmer Moeller, Jamie Mackenzie
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Jamie Mackenzie | 17c | 3,009$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.03 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Elmer Moeller | 77c | 2,935$2,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.76 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Elmer Moeller | 51c | 1,418$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.5 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e1…86b5backed Jamie Mackenzie | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Jamie Mackenzie | 52c | 996.69$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.82 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Jamie Mackenzie | 10c | 893.77$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 323 | 29.7%96 W · 227 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Elmer Moeller | 64c | 587.11$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.36 | 346 | 55.2%191 W · 155 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed Jamie Mackenzie | 38c | 516.5$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.27 | 460 | 30.4%140 W · 320 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…40d3backed Jamie Mackenzie | 19c | 515.95$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.03 | 483 | 31.1%150 W · 333 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d4…8172backed Jamie Mackenzie | 15c | 390$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Elmer Moeller | 64c | 369.4$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Jamie Mackenzie | 38c | 355.26$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Elmer Moeller | 51c | 316.54$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.53 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…2602backed Jamie Mackenzie | 46c | 305.96$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab70…774cbacked Jamie Mackenzie | 56c | 278.04$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Jamie Mackenzie | 43c | 242.42$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Jamie Mackenzie | 36c | 222.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Jamie Mackenzie | 36c | 220.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Jamie Mackenzie | 35c | 220.37$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Elmer Moeller | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Jamie Mackenzie | 36c | 179.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 635 | 37.6%239 W · 396 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed Elmer Moeller | 64c | 172.01$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 536 | 44.8%240 W · 296 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Jamie Mackenzie | 37c | 160$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 611 | 52.2%319 W · 292 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa192…8876backed Jamie Mackenzie | 36c | 148.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Elmer Moeller | 80c | 145.79$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Jamie Mackenzie | 36c | 142.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Elmer Moeller | 62c | 141.97$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 566 | 51.8%293 W · 273 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Elmer Moeller | 67c | 135.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 396 | 48%190 W · 206 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Elmer Moeller | 63c | 127.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Jamie Mackenzie | 15c | 127.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…104cbacked Jamie Mackenzie | 48c | 126.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 302 | 51.3%155 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Elmer Moeller | 63c | 123.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Elmer Moeller | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Elmer Moeller | 66c | 115.83$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 277 | 49.1%136 W · 141 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Jamie Mackenzie | 51c | 112.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8b…3b0ebacked Elmer Moeller | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Jamie Mackenzie | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c22…0a8cbacked Jamie Mackenzie | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 464 | 40.5%188 W · 276 L | -36.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Jamie Mackenzie | 38c | 77.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 276 | 53.6%148 W · 128 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Jamie Mackenzie | 39c | 75.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…18a9backed Elmer Moeller | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Elmer Moeller | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,626 | 52.7%857 W · 769 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Jamie Mackenzie | 36c | 37.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Elmer Moeller | 61c | 37.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…9874backed Elmer Moeller | 69c | 35.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Elmer Moeller | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Jamie Mackenzie | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4936…38a6backed Elmer Moeller | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…e3d8backed Elmer Moeller | 51c | 29.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 335 | 50.7%170 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Elmer Moeller | 53c | 23.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Elmer Moeller | 54c | 20.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 429 | 46.4%199 W · 230 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Elmer Moeller | 65c | 20.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 394 | 46.7%184 W · 210 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4e…150cbacked Elmer Moeller | 65c | 17.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hagen: Elmer Moeller vs Jamie Mackenziethis page
- Set Handicap: Moeller (-1.5) vs Mackenzie (+1.5)Moeller won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.