Bundesliga · resolved market
FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d59c4f2417c6ce8ca78fc581fc67dae2912144667a294e6ca18e4c0b85eafe4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 4,565$1,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 39c | 2,487$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.44 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 50c | 1,741$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 1,602$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.35 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 60c | 1,400$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d55…e1e7backed Over | 1c | 1,254$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 49c | 1,247$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.94 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 3c | 1,190$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 60c | 965$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.42 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 37c | 243.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.1 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…64adbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Under | 22c | 215.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Under | 65c | 184.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 21c | 180.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.65 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…fc20backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…265ebacked Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 21c | 145$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.05 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…5857backed Over | 58c | 111.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…c234backed Over | 71c | 105.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…f00dbacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…1c72backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…c2e3backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa4…cb25backed Over | 80c | 25.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…98b6backed Over | 80c | 24.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…4071backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5this page
- FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5Under won
- FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.