Bundesliga · resolved market
FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x860fed6cc44cd21e5449a6a4abcf962e9fea7f4a1a31996b0581699394cdadb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 21,679$16,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,213.94 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 38c | 13,450$5,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,056.5 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 19c | 12,403$2,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,394.24 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 62c | 5,387$3,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.91 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Over | 38c | 3,618$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 66c | 2,006$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.31 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 43c | 1,071$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.28 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 55c | 1,067$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 77c | 1,067$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.2 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 57c | 911.6$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.61 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…a9e6backed Under | 44c | 897.73$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Under | 67c | 565.99$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.78 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 56c | 469.95$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 43c | 371.76$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.9 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 43c | 345.3$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.82 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 23c | 278.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 60c | 265.79$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.33 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 34c | 240.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Under | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf537…8d55backed Over | 57c | 214.16$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ede…5c8dbacked Over | 57c | 212.49$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…dad4backed Over | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1538…8c7ebacked Under | 76c | 125.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…3c2cbacked Under | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 57c | 96.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…9f0ebacked Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 76c | 51.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8da…9311backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…c2e3backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…3215backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd560…ee17backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2b…acb8backed Over | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5this page
- FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5Under won
- FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.