Bundesliga · resolved market
FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa90bf2eecb06f62b31862954a57f911f652dd4be156263a357aa85fc408fef27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 3,533$2,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 17c | 3,046$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.16 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 74c | 254.44$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…e0cfbacked Over | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 79c | 176.45$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 79c | 75.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Over | 32c | 66.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ec…ba9fbacked Under | 68c | 54.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Under | 66c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…baefbacked Over | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 35c | 42.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x855b…8dd0backed Under | 68c | 22.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5this page
- FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5Under won
- FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.