Premier League · resolved market
Will Wolves win on 2024-12-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d775ccb11849f1a63ebae7624b52dc3537998e99903e6d7d5522d9068e4e429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 5c | 2,927$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.97 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 64c | 2,191$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.76 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 61c | 2,184$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.31 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 35c | 1,890$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.6 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc68a…0e4abacked Yes | 36c | 1,108$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ee…68f3backed No | 66c | 1,088$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 39c | 900$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 35c | 893.6$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.73 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 701.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…2da4backed No | 63c | 557.64$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.31 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 36c | 500$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.5 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…2184backed Yes | 39c | 349.9$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.44 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 63c | 333$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.79 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…ef6fbacked No | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 58c | 285.4$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.98 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4d…2a7cbacked No | 43c | 250.6$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 65c | 250$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | -23.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…929cbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d2…f555backed No | 61c | 230$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.3 | 182 | 60.4%110 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…2148backed Yes | 37c | 193.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…c128backed No | 21c | 166.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…b28abacked No | 66c | 151.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 119 | 15.1%18 W · 101 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce86…f868backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ba…4f17backed Yes | 40c | 109.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27e7…ededbacked Yes | 37c | 106.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd336…7728backed No | 64c | 101.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6afe…33e0backed No | 64c | 101.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27f…9221backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a4…9556backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cff…823dbacked No | 64c | 98.27$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 64c | 86.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34e2…5610backed No | 61c | 81.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736b…ea91backed Yes | 40c | 64.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e66…4383backed Yes | 64c | 62.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…4b81backed No | 63c | 55.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac62…023bbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…244fbacked Yes | 38c | 49.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fad…34c0backed No | 63c | 49.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602c…7da0backed No | 62c | 48.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…1a43backed No | 61c | 37.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…3643backed No | 61c | 37.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa77b…e127backed Yes | 38c | 36.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed No | 62c | 36.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c2…a9eabacked No | 61c | 34.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb928…f0eebacked Yes | 38c | 34.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…a636backed No | 61c | 33.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe045…a905backed Yes | 38c | 31.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +137.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…45a1backed No | 64c | 31.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8771…1a55backed No | 63c | 30.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03c…96dcbacked No | 61c | 30.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b3…d765backed Yes | 39c | 30.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a0…250ebacked Yes | 38c | 30.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…63f1backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…3b32backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…66d9backed No | 63c | 28.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b74…712cbacked No | 62c | 28.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed Yes | 38c | 28.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…c82bbacked Yes | 40c | 27.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f92…989cbacked Yes | 39c | 27.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5abc…ff7cbacked No | 62c | 26.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…27abbacked Yes | 39c | 26.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…1f41backed No | 63c | 26.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…0780backed No | 64c | 26.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0d…2da7backed No | 61c | 25.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f6…d030backed No | 61c | 25.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…a853backed Yes | 40c | 25.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda5a…60edbacked No | 61c | 24.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…ba53backed No | 62c | 24.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6207…8272backed No | 63c | 22.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…953dbacked No | 61c | 22.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 78c | 20.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…4b61backed No | 62c | 19.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b7…05f5backed No | 62c | 18.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5897…b471backed No | 64c | 17.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…6f50backed No | 62c | 17.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c05…2de4backed No | 63c | 17.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c65…c8e6backed No | 61c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wolves win on 2024-12-22?this page
- Will Leicester vs. Wolves end in a draw?No won
- Will Leicester win on 2024-12-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.