Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Nathan Willett be the Republican nominee for MO-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d8d1461ff08b5f5bb02c7ab88bc02d0e793b6abc993811b5e1d22b9fcdfb46b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 15c | 1,990$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.18 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 10c | 1,250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 80c | 329$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 11c | 300.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 15c | 249.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 12c | 194$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 154.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 80c | 143$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6df…d71dbacked Yes | 21c | 80.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 23c | 64.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…2b63backed Yes | 21c | 58.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…c753backed Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…66a8backed No | 80c | 33.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…e5d3backed No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 15.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 77c | 13.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nathan Willett be the Republican nominee for MO-06?this page
- Will Chris Stigall be the Republican nominee for MO-06?Yes won
- Will James Ingram be the Republican nominee for MO-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.