Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Chris Stigall be the Republican nominee for MO-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbeaf469ddc59c3aea0d6c7690eb70b69e3077a9d059f79859130636993ca4f98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 48c | 1,314$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.15 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 23c | 1,012$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.44 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 77c | 537.76$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 78c | 506$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.92 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 23c | 474.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 8c | 474$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 76c | 465.87$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.97 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 21c | 441.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 54c | 404.95$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.92 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 77c | 382.67$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 24c | 317.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 80c | 301.13$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 9c | 271$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 79c | 256.33$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…ed66backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed No | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 9c | 237$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 210.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 15c | 207.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 10c | 201.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 9c | 200.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked No | 18c | 190$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 10c | 170.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 53c | 170$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 14c | 167$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 165.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 22c | 157.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes | 76c | 153$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 14c | 141.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 16c | 132$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 131$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked No | 17c | 120.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 113.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 18c | 97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 94.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 15c | 91.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 49c | 85.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed No | 24c | 79.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.36per pick | 55cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec6b…97dfbacked Yes | 77c | 57.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked Yes | 69c | 54.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 45c | 52.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79fe…6286backed No | 23c | 47.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…c753backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed96…d6edbacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32fd…5c8bbacked Yes | 66c | 29.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 72c | 26.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chris Stigall be the Republican nominee for MO-06?this page
- Will James Ingram be the Republican nominee for MO-06?No won
- Will Nathan Willett be the Republican nominee for MO-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.