TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,437

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,560 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb2a8…c5b9backed No32c702.94$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.768943.8%39 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No3c446.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.172,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe41…556cbacked Yes67c387.85$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.85862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes79c385.83$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.0633561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No15c355.18$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.991,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes57c214.38$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8617358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No21c202.52$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.976755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes53c187.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2917135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ee…2912backed No20c170.06$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.043948.7%19 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No25c153.95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0276924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No21c145.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.421,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No43c123.21$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.811,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No55c116.7$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7483459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c115.5$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes40c110.39$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes57c104.47$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4749941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes39c104.17$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No45c101.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.52,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5526540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d55…6090backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13277.4%2 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7497…d74dbacked Yes57c99.75$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.09850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No29c96.6$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3795852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes14c89.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.393,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No48c89.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.24,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes38c85.25$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.581,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42bc…8d22backed Yes47c84.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.61520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No44c80$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.21,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadd7…8622backed No39c72.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7817766.7%118 W · 59 L-0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes51c71.73$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1860739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes56c70.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.291,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No27c68.11$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.431,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No63c67.34$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.742,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No35c65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.935,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3822…a5a1backed Yes78c62.84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.74850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67f4…df0fbacked No60c58.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510265.7%67 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c55.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305032%16 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df1…3661backed Yes51c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.534748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c49.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.482,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb07e…e682backed No59c49.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3825868.2%176 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick68cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes47c49.41$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2465934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes39c48.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No32c46.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes72c44.7$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.489544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb8d…0511backed Yes45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.443652.8%19 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No47c42.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.832,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eaa…3561backed Yes47c39.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3310636.8%39 W · 67 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc705…b62fbacked Yes50c39.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.82850%14 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes51c39.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3429941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0419848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fa9…a323backed No64c36.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.387755.8%43 W · 34 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-12.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No43c35.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4127464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No57c34.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed No49c34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.55151%26 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes59c33.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.932,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes59c33.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.935,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c33.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9880050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes41c33.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6330652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes54c32.81$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.073636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes43c32.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.793837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe368…3b47backed Yes63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.754156.1%23 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No65c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.413,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.023,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9848…f408backed Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.13132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…64f4backed No51c29.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.255427.8%15 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No78c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45db…f976backed No55c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.71643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.540237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd464…5dc0backed Yes49c24.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.49650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No51c24.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.492,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No54c23.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8765965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c35…3f6dbacked No48c23.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.188036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No55c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c21.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.141,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No53c20.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.034,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1064960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.22,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bf6…24f9backed No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.87335.6%26 W · 47 L-8.1wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-35.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes54c19.42$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.953,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No57c18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3527769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.