Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d9f7a2550bbc1f619ee7435cf78bc81fd596cb0e4a4396c3e848976a7f36ecc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 53c | 306.12$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.27 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 300.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 77c | 271.48$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 236$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 41c | 175.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 165.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 157.64$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 154.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 153.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 150.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 44c | 148.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…37c5backed Yes | 42c | 128.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 19c | 121.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 120.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked Yes | 72c | 115.93$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 96.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 35c | 85.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 39c | 85.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 84.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 43c | 77.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 58c | 71.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 58c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 68.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 71c | 67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 66c | 59.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 56.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 38c | 52.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 79c | 49.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 35c | 47.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 67c | 43.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 45c | 43.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 48c | 42.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 42.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 40.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 42c | 40.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 44c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 39.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 37c | 37.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 42c | 35.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8c64backed No | 61c | 35.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 38c | 33.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 57c | 32.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 35c | 31.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 54c | 29.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 64c | 27.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…ff9fbacked Yes | 41c | 26.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 26.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 62c | 25.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 61c | 24.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…070fbacked Yes | 49c | 23.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 60c | 23.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 57c | 23.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 56c | 23.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 68c | 22.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 51c | 22.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…4c39backed Yes | 48c | 21.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 20.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 57c | 19.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 17.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed No | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.