Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-19.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8db03ad479a32683bd065f0bb21d52f2a2a8479832eccdb2709e79cab1ed3527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wisconsin Badgersof Michigan Wolverines, Wisconsin Badgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $616,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $717,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $616,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 513,158$261,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261,707.36 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 400,000$196,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204,000 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 100,000$49,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,000 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 1,372$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.12 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 808.14$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.53 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 499.98$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 354.46$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.13 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 275$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.66 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 245.28$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 199.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 188.82$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.52 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 183.47$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.74 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 141.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 96.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…bc84backed Wisconsin Badgers | 55c | 45.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 37.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…dd60backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 34.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Wisconsin Badgers | 55c | 21.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-19.5)this page
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-17.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-18.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan WolverinesWisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 163.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 166.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 167.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 168.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 169.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.