Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-18.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2be0d331fdf4bd5f1cb934be91c5dd027e4b24383214dd40dbe1273bc0dd5bdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wisconsin Badgersof Michigan Wolverines, Wisconsin Badgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $597,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $607,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $597,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2643…39aebacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 496,569$264,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264,145.46 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 200,005$94,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106,002.65 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 175,050$81,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93,522.49 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 52,979$24,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,980.04 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,300 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 10,000$4,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,210 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 7,500$3,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,975 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 6,419$3,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,402.05 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 6,233$2,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,313.66 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 5,818$2,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,108.36 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 4,090$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,085.77 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 3,421$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,812.98 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 1,947$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.44 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 1,725$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913 | 169 | 54.4%92 W · 77 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 920.49$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.49 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 639$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 555$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.6 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 406$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.18 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 383.63$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.65 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 373.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 280$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.4 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 270$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 247$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 245.28$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 216.65$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.11 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 211.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.26 | 210 | 50%105 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 191.82$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 172 | 58.7%101 W · 71 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…c90ebacked Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 156.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 144.72$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 129.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.68 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9899…a7f5backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…6f40backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 92.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…901bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…ca6abacked Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 60.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 46.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…f223backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 41.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf389…e45dbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | +14.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc1…c34abacked Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 37.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…9fddbacked Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 33.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82d1…663fbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 33.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…e11bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de5…4a03backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…5394backed Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 28.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…7f09backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 27.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 26.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 26.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb8…846ebacked Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 24.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 20.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-18.5)this page
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-17.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-19.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan WolverinesWisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 163.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 166.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 167.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 168.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 169.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.