Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 168.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12b0760a7d66211fb8878cee4b9d7f8dff7fb4796fa2075ef8bb5a56130c48e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $711,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $712,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $711,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 49c | 642,525$314,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327,690.91 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 51c | 250,000$127,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127,500 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked Under | 51c | 148,594$75,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,782.9 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Under | 51c | 133,337$68,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,001.87 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Under | 51c | 100,000$51,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,000 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Under | 51c | 23,726$11,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,992.48 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 17,933$8,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,261.6 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 9,500$4,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,845 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Under | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 52c | 4,315$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,243.67 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Under | 52c | 3,890$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,022.8 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ece…ef2fbacked Under | 52c | 2,890$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 50c | 2,888$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.87 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 50c | 1,999$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.65 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 50c | 1,827$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.5 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Under | 51c | 1,177$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.05 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 49c | 929.98$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.29 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 904.05$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.37 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 53c | 800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Under | 52c | 525$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 270 | 45.2%122 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Under | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 49c | 202.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50ba…5435backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Under | 52c | 198.05$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa274…6ba3backed Under | 53c | 182.47$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Under | 32c | 157.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35cb…318abacked Over | 68c | 132.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…ce53backed Under | 53c | 122.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Under | 51c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 52c | 96.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Under | 52c | 86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…6fc0backed Under | 53c | 84.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Under | 52c | 84.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…f75cbacked Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…c90ebacked Under | 53c | 72.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…bc84backed Under | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Under | 53c | 63.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 169 | 54.4%92 W · 77 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…5cc6backed Under | 51c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7392…77abbacked Under | 53c | 43.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…3a51backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9899…a7f5backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…1e27backed Under | 52c | 37.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 52c | 28.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…ca6abacked Under | 53c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Under | 57c | 21.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…98e5backed Under | 51c | 19.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…bdddbacked Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 168.5this page
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-17.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-18.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-19.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan WolverinesWisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 163.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 166.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 167.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 169.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.