Tennis · resolved market
Asuncion: Nicolas Kicker vs Thiago Cigarran
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8db48994155d7ed6530cfaeeafa557b600b7e6975d6e92e136d82a915eb3d2be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thiago Cigarranof Nicolas Kicker, Thiago Cigarran
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,212 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Nicolas Kicker | 57c | 10,032$5,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,727.94 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thiago Cigarran | 39c | 7,600$2,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,632.71 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thiago Cigarran | 12c | 3,638$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,199.27 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…77eebacked Nicolas Kicker | 57c | 3,295$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.65 | 819 | 33.1%271 W · 548 L | -30.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Thiago Cigarran | 12c | 3,064$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,683.72 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Thiago Cigarran | 27c | 2,617$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,910.52 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nicolas Kicker | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thiago Cigarran | 33c | 1,720$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.51 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Nicolas Kicker | 58c | 1,381$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.99 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed Thiago Cigarran | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 619 | 24.4%151 W · 468 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Thiago Cigarran | 10c | 977.27$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.77 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Thiago Cigarran | 31c | 968.42$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.21 | 199 | 38.2%76 W · 123 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…de5fbacked Thiago Cigarran | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.09 | 168 | 30.4%51 W · 117 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…fed6backed Thiago Cigarran | 22c | 812.64$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.86 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Thiago Cigarran | 23c | 807.35$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.66 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cc…b660backed Thiago Cigarran | 7c | 800$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a73…e1adbacked Thiago Cigarran | 30c | 778.07$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.07 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe82c…4d90backed Nicolas Kicker | 2c | 748.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Thiago Cigarran | 41c | 716.22$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.94 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nicolas Kicker | 60c | 688.43$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.93 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Thiago Cigarran | 33c | 678.77$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.39 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…8ae5backed Nicolas Kicker | 3c | 636.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9087…457bbacked Nicolas Kicker | 75c | 632.2$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…b46abacked Thiago Cigarran | 21c | 531.9$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.2 | 237 | 35%83 W · 154 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…d3edbacked Nicolas Kicker | 54c | 507.07$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.82 | 556 | 46.4%258 W · 298 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Nicolas Kicker | 65c | 483.28$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.31 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Nicolas Kicker | 60c | 460.31$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.46 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…8228backed Thiago Cigarran | 15c | 450.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.27 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Thiago Cigarran | 30c | 449.13$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.39 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18e1…5916backed Thiago Cigarran | 34c | 428.68$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.35 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Nicolas Kicker | 70c | 410$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 544 | 50.6%275 W · 269 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd5…8afbbacked Thiago Cigarran | 24c | 399.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…d5d0backed Nicolas Kicker | 75c | 391.72$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.79 | 247 | 62.3%154 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Nicolas Kicker | 75c | 375.82$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 464 | 73.3%340 W · 124 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…49f8backed Thiago Cigarran | 24c | 334.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.58 | 198 | 35.4%70 W · 128 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Thiago Cigarran | 41c | 274.59$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.78 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…2b3abacked Nicolas Kicker | 76c | 263.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 503 | 64.6%325 W · 178 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…7fbebacked Thiago Cigarran | 27c | 263$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.99 | 282 | 47.9%135 W · 147 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed Thiago Cigarran | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Nicolas Kicker | 62c | 242$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.16 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…e82abacked Thiago Cigarran | 27c | 216.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.06 | 440 | 38.4%169 W · 271 L | -27.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Nicolas Kicker | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Nicolas Kicker | 54c | 162.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Thiago Cigarran | 37c | 130.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Nicolas Kicker | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 514 | 45.5%234 W · 280 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…af00backed Thiago Cigarran | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa1…dc77backed Nicolas Kicker | 72c | 97.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Thiago Cigarran | 38c | 95.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Thiago Cigarran | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…86f6backed Nicolas Kicker | 79c | 76.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Nicolas Kicker | 60c | 74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 269 | 41.3%111 W · 158 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…0b8abacked Nicolas Kicker | 66c | 69.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…92bdbacked Nicolas Kicker | 64c | 63.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 1,076 | 73.8%794 W · 282 L | +41.1wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Nicolas Kicker | 57c | 62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…fe3bbacked Thiago Cigarran | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Thiago Cigarran | 31c | 59.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…6af2backed Nicolas Kicker | 56c | 58.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 128 | 35.2%45 W · 83 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…e0f7backed Nicolas Kicker | 61c | 58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Thiago Cigarran | 35c | 56.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 384 | 60.4%232 W · 152 L | +29.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9d…1299backed Nicolas Kicker | 53c | 56.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Nicolas Kicker | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Thiago Cigarran | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…a1d5backed Nicolas Kicker | 61c | 43.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…f152backed Nicolas Kicker | 75c | 40.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 734 | 58.6%430 W · 304 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…b132backed Nicolas Kicker | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Thiago Cigarran | 36c | 37.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Thiago Cigarran | 48c | 37.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Thiago Cigarran | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Thiago Cigarran | 32c | 35.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 363 | 33.9%123 W · 240 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Thiago Cigarran | 32c | 33.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…4015backed Thiago Cigarran | 35c | 31.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Nicolas Kicker | 65c | 31.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Nicolas Kicker | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…1bffbacked Nicolas Kicker | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Nicolas Kicker | 47c | 24.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…644abacked Thiago Cigarran | 60c | 24.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 161 | 75.2%121 W · 40 L | +20.4wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce2…4b11backed Nicolas Kicker | 48c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Asuncion: Nicolas Kicker vs Thiago Cigarranthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Kicker vs CigarranKicker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.