WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dbdc050f941ae386df0d12263a686a97e2e5b73d861cf35ae898b3c680f9772
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 2,259$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.29 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 1,951$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.61 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.97 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Indiana Fever | 56c | 1,136$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.42 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Connecticut Sun | 52c | 999.93$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.96 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.33 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 809.44$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.91 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 717.04$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.86 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 699.91$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.95 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 647.68$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.27 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Connecticut Sun | 45c | 645.35$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.2 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 502.5$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.3 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 499.96$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.98 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…dda7backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 477.83$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.25 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Connecticut Sun | 52c | 388.2$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.87 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 381.44$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.06 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 245$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.24 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 229$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.08 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 228.27$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.23 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 224.28$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.52 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 163.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 117.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 115$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 108.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 58.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…3166backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…9c5cbacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f9…f515backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 48.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36de…0c74backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 44.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Indiana Fever | 53c | 41.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5525…7d01backed Indiana Fever | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 30.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 27.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe453…0bb9backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 27.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 25.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 25.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…0b91backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 24.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7160…cce2backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 24.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…8d08backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5)this page
- Brittney Griner: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Brittney Griner: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana FeverIndiana Fever won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.