Mls · resolved market
Will Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dc2c71aa09ad944b89498ad4f65166b1adfec0aca8cd4d43b7451ed24dc4d8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes | 17c | 4,515$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,725.71 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 76c | 2,500$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.1 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 73c | 646.05$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.89 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked No | 80c | 427.88$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.3 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…3fe8backed Yes | 25c | 380$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 79c | 342.05$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 17c | 293.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.4 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 75c | 240$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 19c | 181.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.66 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 19c | 173.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 34c | 170.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 77c | 156.54$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 112$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 67c | 103.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 20c | 103.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 15c | 87.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 24c | 85.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 60c | 76.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 56c | 59.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 39c | 50.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 50.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 58c | 41.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 45c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Yes | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Yes | 69c | 32.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed No | 77c | 32.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed No | 79c | 31.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa867…71abbacked Yes | 60c | 20.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 19.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.