Mls · resolved market
Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x548ead894bf5d14d1808e0af8030708e150c9afcdaf007739e35a7d936e9e0b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes | 3c | 8,134$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.18 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 76c | 2,469$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.56 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 29c | 1,933$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.11 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 1,775$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.76 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Yes | 30c | 1,290$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.9 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 699.77$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.21 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 10c | 669$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Yes | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Yes | 28c | 493.08$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.06 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 70c | 471.12$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.55 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 70c | 395.2$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.56 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed No | 70c | 369.04$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.71 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 31c | 322.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 15c | 310$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 25c | 249.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 7c | 215.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 74c | 215.12$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 70c | 197.76$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Yes | 30c | 194.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 72c | 186$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 153.09$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 10c | 151.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 70c | 149.39$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 69c | 137.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 14c | 101$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 80c | 56.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 29c | 46.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 70c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 30c | 43.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7296…69f5backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 70c | 29.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 69c | 21.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…672ebacked No | 70c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e48…d2c3backed No | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.