Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ddc6ad8d3f0ffebe37309c915bc36c664a43e38c0dba48c1a2c0fc457b56052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 63c | 312.27$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 245.1$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 186.48$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 24c | 164.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.01 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 158.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 129.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 124.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 31c | 124$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 23c | 115.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 45c | 114.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 111.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 66c | 103$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 81.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 25c | 75.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 70.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 68.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 15c | 68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 65.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 36c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 55c | 50.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 70c | 49.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 39c | 48.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489e…99bdbacked No | 66c | 37.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 36.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 34.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 59c | 33.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 31.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 66c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 25.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33a2…6efbbacked Yes | 63c | 24.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 55c | 24.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.