Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f5718bf5cc7c98a51cf113c3b04ba74e38a27be3dffb4e13f4b3e3b148a4c8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 23c | 900.98$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.38 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 760.15$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.54 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 10c | 527.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.36 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 374.22$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 368.82$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 298.37$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.92 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 26c | 260.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.61 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 256.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 245.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 8c | 230.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 196$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 63c | 171.66$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…13afbacked Yes | 9c | 144.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.14 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 140$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 133.42$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 49c | 124$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 58c | 120$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 73c | 114.3$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 69c | 108.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 10c | 105.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 105.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 44c | 103.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed No | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 96.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 71.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 34c | 68.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489e…99bdbacked Yes | 78c | 67.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 39c | 64.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 60.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 57.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 70c | 53.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a80…74f4backed Yes | 27c | 51.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 69c | 50.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…ead3backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 77c | 39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 62c | 37.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 60c | 35.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 34.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 31.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 31.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 74c | 28.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…89a4backed Yes | 55c | 25.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 71c | 21.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 19.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 75c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 72c | 17.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 71c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 75c | 15.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.