Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8de6e54335acfd26ffd0c1edcac5783098e4df8c1465e387851fd88d6de23f5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f3c…2f57backed Yes | 59c | 3,524$2,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.92 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 43c | 2,461$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 41c | 2,421$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.4 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.56 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 57c | 775.57$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.75 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35b…d8d0backed Yes | 58c | 521.78$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…048abacked Yes | 58c | 504.21$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 41c | 468.18$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.15 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 44c | 180.43$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 40c | 169$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 41c | 97.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 60c | 87.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c9…37f8backed Yes | 59c | 81.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 60c | 68.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 43c | 48.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 43c | 48.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 43c | 48.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed No | 44c | 30.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…c5c6backed Yes | 59c | 29.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 43c | 28.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Yes | 57c | 25.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8724…b082backed Yes | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 58c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.