TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bayer 04 Leverkusenof Bayer 04 Leverkusen, VfL Wolfsburg
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,421
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,415

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,421 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9158…fa7bbacked VfL Wolfsburg57c41,538$23,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,676.552941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen43c28,076$12,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,003.083636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1333…173bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen43c12,564$5,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,161.47742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d2…d196backed VfL Wolfsburg55c9,490$5,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,235.196453.1%34 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed VfL Wolfsburg56c9,000$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,039.895653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen39c6,833$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,152.223,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c4,954$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,774.344264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed VfL Wolfsburg57c1,811$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.7229855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c1,530$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.689459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c1,044$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.4517749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed VfL Wolfsburg57c870.09$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.957967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c760.54$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.078547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1509…ca95backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c589.5$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.12560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c557.06$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.741,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c549.15$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.155942.4%25 W · 34 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c549.05$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.476952.2%36 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen36c528.79$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.021,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c472.7$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.5711148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4192…d6aabacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c439.35$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.451163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c439.27$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.992751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked VfL Wolfsburg58c420.17$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.73246.9%15 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa46d…d8e5backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c420$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2311266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+38.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd810…2eb8backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c370$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.52850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c319.03$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.255940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen15c316.66$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.272748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c300$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16549647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c290.67$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.447349.3%36 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c260.94$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.527751.9%40 W · 37 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe19e…ac82backed VfL Wolfsburg58c252.1$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.22250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c250$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.563645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed VfL Wolfsburg30c245.66$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3933938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen27c233.84$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.882,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed VfL Wolfsburg56c225$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1263836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c219.64$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1236844.1%30 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c219.55$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.97450%37 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c196.81$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2448146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen35c193.95$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.8720645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c185.55$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.914753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c181.66$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.826860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c180$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.820545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen42c153.59$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0816652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen21c153.19$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.081,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816541.5%27 W · 38 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c144.15$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.84971.4%35 W · 14 L+7.3wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+43.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c143.03$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.111049.1%54 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c139.92$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.955255.8%29 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed VfL Wolfsburg56c129.46$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.518545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe867…0905backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen43c112.41$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.124030%12 W · 28 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen43c112.3$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0118840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe777…c734backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c105.22$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.611650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c101.39$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6920548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen27c96.22$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9978248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen55c89.16$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.217262.5%45 W · 27 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56c2…abcbbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c85.96$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.282171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed VfL Wolfsburg57c84.31$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0612056.7%68 W · 52 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72bd…d37abacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen46c81.58$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.842948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6caa…4fb3backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen43c78.62$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a6c…e9a0backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen43c78.61$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+63%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c67.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.773961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ecf…9148backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c64.47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.46812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick40cpaid-72.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c59.7$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.848252.4%43 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf137…9341backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c59.11$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.512100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+95.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c54.91$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.757749.4%38 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ec…ab04backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen43c52.2$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.752100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c50.25$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.145052%26 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x231f…254bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c50.25$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.141030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c45.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.877145.1%32 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5587…6d07backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen43c44.92$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+30.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe76b…b834backed VfL Wolfsburg57c42.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf20…5be2backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen43c39.31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ac…40d1backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen42c37.63$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d12…a4c4backed VfL Wolfsburg70c37.45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.11040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-43.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7770…f99bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c37.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.911861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6436…2bb0backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c36.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed VfL Wolfsburg55c35.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.72853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked VfL Wolfsburg55c35.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.72759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ea3…71a1backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c34.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.352433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdb17…32b2backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen45c32.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.543158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked VfL Wolfsburg72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5122245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5470…7685backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen41c28.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.79944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen44c25.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.027265.3%47 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed VfL Wolfsburg66c20.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8439558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.